PORTLAND, Ore. — The business community of Portland’s central city gathered Thursday to hear the latest numbers on post-pandemic economic recovery, and the news was mostly grim. As one researcher put it, the local economy is on the precipice of an “urban doom loop,” if it isn’t there already.

The Portland Metro Chamber’s full 2025 State of the Economy report is a lengthy data and graph-filled presentation, which paints a less-than-ideal picture of economic metrics in northwest Oregon.

And less than ideal might be a generous description. The lowlights include population loss in Multnomah County, regional job losses in spite of a growing national labor market, and people voting with their feet by leaving the Portland area due to high housing costs and taxes.

When it comes to real estate attractiveness, Portland ranked 80th out of 81 cities examined, coming in second-to-last, just before Hartford, Connecticut.

The report shows that this failure to thrive is primarily localized to Portland. Across the river, Clark County is booming. On the Oregon side of the metro, only Washington County had a natural population increase of note, although it’s still losing more to domestic migration. Clackamas County is stagnant, and Multnomah County is hemorrhaging residents — only seeing gains from international migration from abroad.

“The key challenges here are our population is in decline,” said Dr. Mike Wilkerson, public policy consultant with ECOnorthwest. “This is not new this year — this was very known last year, and we have just added one more year of what was already a pretty consistent trend.”

Wilkerson was the lead economist for the report, commissioned by the Portland Metro Chamber.

Many higher-income emigres from Multnomah County are either going north to Clark County or down to Clackamas County, the report found.

A graph showing the annual average income of people moving into the four counties rates Multnomah County at the bottom, with an average income of $73,000. Washington County is next with just under $90,000, while Clackamas and Clark counties are both above the $105,000 mark.

Those high-income residents are taking their purchasing power with them — according to the report, this trend became pronounced in 2018 and accelerated during the pandemic.

When it comes to the overall economic picture, the Portland region has long been considered “elastic” — but that appears to have changed.

“We know one thing has been certain for almost three decades: As the U.S. economy grows, Portland and Oregon grow faster, and as the economy across the United States shrinks or contracts, we shrink harder and contract harder,” said Andrew Hoan, president of the Portland Metro Chamber. “The news today is hard to share, but that is no longer the case. While the U.S. economy continues to expand, our community is not.”

That’s where Thursday’s presentation set up a grim headline that is already popping up around town: concerns of an “urban doom loop.” Essentially, it’s the fear that Portland’s economy is circling the drain.

“The language here is strong, and there’s a reason for that, because this isn’t an afterthought,” Wilkerson told the gathering Thursday morning. “Urban doom loops are a thing, and when you look at the data, you can make the case that we are in one or that we are on the precipice of being in one. That distinction matters. The point is, once you are in one, you typically don’t know it until many years later, and it is very hard to get out of that pattern.”

In response to a request for comment, Portland Mayor Keith Wilson provided the following statement:

“Let’s be frank; we have some big economic headwinds. Portland has overcome serious economic challenges in the past and come out stronger. It’s time to focus on proven solutions for a thriving economy with initiatives on livability, shelter for our homeless and supporting economic opportunity. Portland is making all the right reforms to drive the economic revival we need to welcome the next wave of families and investment to our city.”